Will the history of the India-Pakistan war repeat itself?

Although there may be only one local war between India and Pakistan, this fierce local war will also have a strong impact and international influence. If Pakistan can maintain its current status in the war, it means that it has achieved an amazing victory. India’s ambitions will be heavily hit. In the future, India will be more strongly involved in the arms of the US hegemony, and will be even more ignorant of shame. The United States is willing to send a hug; if Pakistan is defeated, it will further fuel India’s expansion ambitions, and India will try its best to swallow the entire Kashmir. Once such a situation arises, it will become a fatal blow to China-Pakistan strategic ties and China's “Belt and Road” and will seriously hit China's surrounding strategic environment.

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Local wars are still a big hit – will the history of the India-Pakistan war repeat itself?

The conflict between India and Pakistan has suddenly intensified. The two sides have already done their part, and a new large-scale India-Pakistan war has emerged. In this regard, people cannot help but ask, will the fourth India-Pakistan war break out between India and Pakistan?

Wars between countries in human society generally have two attributes: contingent and inevitable: some wars have considerable contingency, while some wars are inevitable in strategic logic, and some wars have considerable accidentality. There are also many ineviations in it. Predicting the war has never been able to grasp the various accidental factors, but can only analyze and judge the inevitable factors contained therein. The same is true for the new India-Pakistan war. We can only analyze the basic conditions.

The first question is: Which of India and Pakistan has the will and intention to wage war? Simply put, which one wants to fight which one does not want to fight?

Because everyone knows that if neither of them wants to fight, they are opposed to resorting to force, and the war will not be able to fight, and even the conflict will be gone. But this situation obviously does not exist, this is the obvious reason. In other words, among them are countries that want to fight. So who is this country?

The answer is undoubtedly India.

For a long time, India’s ambition to dominate the South Asian subcontinent has been moving forward steadily, and now it has reached a level that is clear and undisguised. Driven by strong ambitions, for several small countries around, India is threatened by armed forces, and Pakistan alone has credible and viable counter-strength. Therefore, the Indian authorities always regard Pakistan as the number one enemy and regard it as the biggest obstacle for India to dominate South Asia. In India's national defense strategy and military doctrine, fighting Pakistan has always been its first priority, and its war planning and resource arrangements are largely prepared for this purpose. It can be said that the war on Pakistan is prepared deliberately, which is basically known in India and even in the world. Pakistan, on the other hand, was weak and had to work hard to fight against India’s aggression and make every effort to protect itself. Any fair and just strategic evaluation will lead to the following conclusions: India and Pakistan have such a basic strategy: in the face of India, Pakistan has a life and death crisis; in the face of Pakistan, India has a strategic initiative to kill.

As for the so-called Pakistani terrorist threat, it is actually an excuse and a gimmick. It is true that Kashmiri’s independence is true. Pakistan’s support for these independent movements may or may not be true, but it is not Pakistan that provokes large-scale armed conflicts and causes war.

In short, India has a strong war attempt, and Pakistan can only be forced to defend itself, and it is a last resort to prepare for a war.

Next, we can seriously analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the respective conditions of India and Pakistan.

First, the overall strength comparison is beneficial to India.

India's economy, military and strategic volume are far from comparable to those of Pakistan. If it is hit, India can withstand large-scale and long-term wars, and Pakistan will be overwhelmed.

Second, the international strategic environment is not good for India.

India has already invested in the United States strategically. It has become an important pillar and platform for the US "Indo-Pacific strategy." The relationship between Pakistan and the United States has gone from bad to worse, and it has already become a strategic abandonment of the United States. Nowadays, the United States only uses Pakistan to a certain extent. . If a new India-Pakistan war breaks out, the United States will lead the Western collective to protect India and give India strong and practical support. The relationship between Russia and Pakistan is still in its infancy, and its strategic ties with India are still very close. If time permits, perhaps Russia will fall to Pakistan in the future, but this time it is impossible, and it is most unbiased between India and Pakistan. Overall, India has strong foreign aid, and Pakistan is strategically isolated.

Third, relying on the strategic “killer”, Pakistan can achieve a certain degree of strategic balance.

For a long time, Pakistan’s war preparations and the building of armed forces have always been unremitting, especially in the construction of “killers”. This is its nuclear weapons and missile weapons. These two weapons systems, Pakistan, are not behind India, and some are even stronger than India. These are weapons of destructive nature. With such armed forces in hand, India will vote against Pakistan, and war desires and actions will be greatly Restriction.

As a result, it is unlikely that India and Pakistan will fight as much as they did in the previous three India-Pakistan wars. However, India’s possibility of launching a partial and fierce war against Pakistan has never been greater. Therefore, it is entirely possible for India and Pakistan to conduct a large-scale conventional war contest on this disputed land in Kashmir.

Although there may be only one local war between India and Pakistan, this fierce local war will also have a strong impact and international influence. If Pakistan can maintain its current status in the war, it means that it has achieved an amazing victory. India’s ambitions will be heavily hit. In the future, India will be more strongly involved in the arms of the US hegemony, and will be even more ignorant of shame. The United States is willing to send a hug; if Pakistan is defeated, it will further fuel India’s expansion ambitions, and India will try its best to swallow the entire Kashmir. Once such a situation arises, it will become a fatal blow to China-Pakistan strategic ties and China's “Belt and Road” and will seriously hit China's surrounding strategic environment. ( In 2009, the author wrote the article "Which direction does the danger come from - the geostrategic struggle around China", the original text is attached, for reference only)